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| #145822 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 PM 13.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/17. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN |
