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| #145889 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 14.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS. DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
