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| #146147 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 15.Aug.2007) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007 THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ARE WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BUOYS NEARBY AND ANALYSIS OF LOW-CLOUD MOTION SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FAVOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON. BECAUSE ERIN IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. SINCE THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ERIN...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING ERIN INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR LESS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 26.3N 94.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 27.2N 95.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 97.5W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/0600Z 29.0N 99.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
