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| #146320 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 16.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2007 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA |
