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| #146367 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 16.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2007 AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 15SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 15SE 15SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
