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| #146370 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 16.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE. TRACK MODELS ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.0N 56.5W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W 110 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W 120 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE |
