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| #146531 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 17.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING NEAR ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS... SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR IN THE ST. LUCIA CHANNEL BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR...WHILE BARBADOS HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
