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| #146583 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 17.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 THE CENTER OF DEAN CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE AS INDICATED BY THE MARTINIQUE RADAR. AT 0842 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MARTINIQUE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964 MB...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND A CLOSED EYEWALL. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. BOTH SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE PLANE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE HIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE ONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS. THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.6N 62.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 130 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W 105 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
