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| #146636 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 17.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
