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| #146775 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 18.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007 AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924 MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
