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| #146936 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 AM 19.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007 THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES. AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.0N 75.1W 125 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W 125 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W 130 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W 140 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
