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| #146973 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 19.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOMORROW. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME |
