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| #147060 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 20.Aug.2007) TCMAT4 HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0900 UTC MON AUG 20 2007 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 80.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 350SE 275SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 80.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.1N 83.5W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 75SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 94.0W...BAY OF CAMPECHE MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 80.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN |
