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| #147096 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 20.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN...DEAN SHOULD RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE CROSSING AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS THEREFORE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BELOW...DEAN COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL FORECAST. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTWARD-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN A VERY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.9N 82.4W 130 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W 140 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W 100 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
