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| #147097 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 20.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007 ...DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER TODAY... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM... EAST OF BELIZE CITY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME |
