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| #147148 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:58 PM 20.Aug.2007) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007 ...HURRICANE DEAN VERY NEAR CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH... ...OUTER BANDS ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 155 MPH...245 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AND DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS |
