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| #147439 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 22.Aug.2007) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DEAN IS FINDING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 100 KT...AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD. A DROPSONDE ABOUT 20 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A WL150...I.E. LOW-LEVEL...MEAN WIND OF 100 KT... CORRESPONDING TO 85 KT AT THE SURFACE. ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT...MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. FORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE ARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...285/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR TUXPAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.6N 96.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 98.6W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI |
