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| #148810 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 31.Aug.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 11.8N 58.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA |
