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| #148891 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 01.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FELIX. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY PASSED OVER GRENADA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 12.4N 62.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
