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| #149042 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 01.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE. BASED ON THIS... FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THAT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR. FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS. THE RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES... BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 12.7N 66.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.2N 69.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.7N 76.6W 90 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 15.4N 79.7W 100 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 88.5W 110 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
