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| #149180 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 02.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0000Z 13.8N 72.9W 145 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 150 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 145 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 145 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 145 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN |
