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| #149205 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 02.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007 SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT 23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND 00Z. GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW. THE MAJOR MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.9N 73.9W 145 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.5N 76.6W 150 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 79.8W 145 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.6N 82.8W 145 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.2N 85.2W 145 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W 135 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 96.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
