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| #149235 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 03.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007 FELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT SINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE RIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD TO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE FELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY COMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT WILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT FELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.1N 75.9W 145 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 78.7W 150 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 81.9W 145 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 84.8W 125 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 87.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 95.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
