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| #149309 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 03.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007 AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN. HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17 KT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX. THIS REGIME IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET. OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.3N 79.5W 115 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W 120 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W 90 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
