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| #150064 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 09.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007 GABRIELLE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES ARE NO LONGER WRAPPING AROUND THE SMALL CIRCULATION... WHICH HAS SEPARATED A LITTLE FROM THE CONVECTION... PROBABLY DUE TO NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VELOCITY DATA FROM THE RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT THAT JUST FLEW THROUGH THE CENTER HAS NOT SAMPLED THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...IT HAS NOT FOUND ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED. SINCE GABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND NORTHERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9...AND RADAR IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE TURN TO THE RIGHT IS BEGINNING. GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.7N 76.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 35.9N 75.8W 50 KT...NEAR NC COAST 24HR VT 10/1200Z 37.3N 73.9W 50 KT...OVER ATLANTIC 36HR VT 11/0000Z 38.5N 71.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 39.8N 67.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB |
