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| #150109 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 09.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007 DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT DEPARTED GABRIELLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE LIKELY 50 KT OVER WATER SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE CENTER THEN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE AT ABOUT 1545 UTC. SINCE THEN THE NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE...AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS PROCEEDED NORTHWARD OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS REMAINED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...GABRIELLE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON AS IT MOVES AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 35.7N 76.1W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 10/0600Z 36.7N 74.9W 40 KT...OVER ATLANTIC 24HR VT 10/1800Z 37.8N 72.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 40.3N 65.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB |
