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| #150295 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 11.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007 IN ADDITION TO THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ECLIPSE PERIOD FOR GOES-EAST...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT DUE TO A LUNAR SHADOW. THIS EVENT OCCURS ABOUT TWICE PER YEAR WHEN THE MOON IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THE SATELLITE AND THE SUN. LUCKILY...A VERY TIMELY TRMM PASS AT 0611 UTC HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER AND INDICATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY...GABRIELLE IS JUST BECOMING VISIBLE IN THE OUTER FRINGES OF METSAT-9 IMAGERY...WHICH ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A WARM CORE EDDY IN A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE... GABRIELLE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED...FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHARPLY COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS. THE 0611 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 065/18. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH BASED ON THIS DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 39.0N 66.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 40.2N 63.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 42.1N 58.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
