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| #150423 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 12.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THUS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.2N 44.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 13.6N 45.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 47.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 14.3N 48.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.6N 49.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 51.4W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
