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| #150480 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 12.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD THEREAFTER...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF HWRF...GFDL...UMKET...AND GFS MODELS. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS BY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.5N 45.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.9N 46.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.3N 47.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 48.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 15.1N 49.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.2N 52.2W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 58.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
