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| #150493 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 12.Sep.2007) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007 500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007 THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW HIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/5. THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND HUMBERTO MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. A MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND INDUCE A FURTHER TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO COULD DETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS AND LINGER NEAR THE GULF COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 28.6N 94.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 94.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 93.9W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.3N 92.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
