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| #150632 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 13.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007 A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW HOURS. THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AFTERWARD...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...REFLECTING AN INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION OF 285/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFDL...AND THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 13.9N 48.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 49.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 49.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 14.8N 50.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 15.2N 52.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 18.2N 59.6W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN |
