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| #150884 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 PM 14.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND FOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE PLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT SEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME. GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS PATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS EVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE STORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE LONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.9N 51.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 16.4N 52.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 17.4N 53.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 18.4N 55.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 56.4W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.8N 58.2W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 59.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 60.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
