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| #151065 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 16.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007 THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES HAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT TIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.0N 56.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 58.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 19.1N 60.4W 25 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.0N 61.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 64.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
