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| #151206 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 AM 17.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007 INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED. MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FORECAST POINTS FOR A BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.5N 60.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 61.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 18/0600Z 18.3N 62.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
