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| #152234 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 23.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM. BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/07. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT JERRY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE ABSORPTION SINCE JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. IF JERRY IS UNABLE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT CONVECTION...IT COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 37.4N 46.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 43.6N 40.7W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/1200Z..ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
