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| #152260 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 24.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007 500 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007 DEEP CONVECTION WAS JUST ABOUT GONE AFTER 03Z...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY RESUMED IN A LOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. JERRY THEREFORE HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS HEADED TOWARD COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH LONGER JERRY CAN MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THAT WILL SOON BE A MOOT POINT... SINCE EITHER WAY JERRY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS CLOSING IN FAST ON JERRY. IN RESPONSE THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/13. JERRY SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SPEED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EVENTUALLY TO BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. DUE TO THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 38.6N 45.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 41.4N 43.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
