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| #152295 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 24.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007 SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS NOW DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM BELOW STORM STRENGTH. THERE IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SO IT IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER JERRY IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DEFORMED AND ILL-DEFINED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT JERRY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11. THE STEERING CURRENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...SO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 39.5N 44.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 42.7N 41.2W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
