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| #152323 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 24.Sep.2007) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007 500 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE WE NEED TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA...AND THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ABSORB JERRY IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/20. JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE THAT IS APPROACHING 50W. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 41.8N 42.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 45.5N 38.7W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
