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| #152448 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 25.Sep.2007) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 39.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.3N 44.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.3N 47.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.7N 48.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 39.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH |
