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| #152485 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 25.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007 THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...BUT AN SSMI MICROWAVE PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z DEPICTED THE SMALL CENTER NICELY AND INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOME OF THE MODELS ROTATE THE DEPRESSION WITHIN A BROADER LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF UNTIL MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY TAKE A COUPLE DAYS TO DEVELOP...A SHORT-TERM LOOPING SCENARIO MIGHT BE A REASONABLE ONE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING TODAY...AND IS PRESENTLY AT A MINIMUM. THERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THAT OCCURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LESS QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 21.7N 95.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 21.3N 95.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.1N 95.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 20.9N 95.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 96.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
