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| #152545 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 26.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007 THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION'S CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 30 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FIX SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM HAS INDEED STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF TUXPAN MEXICO IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...AND AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW THAT THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...PARTICULARLY IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 180/2. A WEAK STEERING CURRENT HAS PREVAILED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY MOVE QUITE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATES THE ABOVEMENTIONED MOTION...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED... HOWEVER...THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC PACKAGE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.9N 95.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 20.7N 95.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 20.3N 95.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 20.1N 96.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 97.7W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
