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| #152668 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 27.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 500 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INCLUDED A 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 36 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT ALVARADO SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT WELL DEFINED. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE DEPRESSION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...WHILE THE THREE FIXES FROM THE MISSION SUGGEST A WESTERLY MOTION. PUTTING THESE TOGETHER YIELDS AN UNCERTAIN MOTION ESTIMATE OF 245/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE DATA SHOW THAT THE MID/LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE MODELS NOW SPREAD BETWEEN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK GFS AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACKING UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HR. IT LIES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR MAY BE TEMPORARILY UNDERCUTTING THE ANTICYCLONE. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS FLOW TO DECREASE...LEAVING THE DEPRESSION IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 50 KT AT LANDFALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 20.8N 95.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 20.7N 95.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.6N 96.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 97.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 20.9N 98.7W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
