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| #152702 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 27.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007 DATA FROM THE ALVARADO RADAR IN MEXICO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY... SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE DEPRESSION AROUND 18Z. THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 20.7N 95.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.3N 96.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 97.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 99.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
