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| #152739 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 27.Sep.2007) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2007 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..170NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 47.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.5N 49.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.8N 51.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 52.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.7N 54.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA |
