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| #152745 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 27.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LORENZO INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND THE PRESSURE HAS COME DOWN TO AT LEAST 999 MB. THE CREW REPORTED A VERY TIGHT CENTER THAT WAS VERY HARD TO FIX...WITH A LOT OF CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE CENTER OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...LORENZO COULD EASILY CROSS THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. WE ALL KNOW THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN DESPITE ALL THE RECENT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES...AND THE WINDS AT LANDFALL COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN INDICATED. LORENZO CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE LORENZO ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING LORENZO TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE SLOW MOTION OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG ITS PATH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 20.4N 95.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
