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| #152780 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 27.Sep.2007) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007 ...LORENZO STRENGTHENING JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF TUXPAN WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LORENZO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
