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| #152812 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 28.Sep.2007) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 49.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 49.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 52.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 53.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 56.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI |
