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| #152819 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 28.Sep.2007) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KAREN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...AND THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY OBSCURED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS WEAKENED. LATEST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 40 KT. AS A RESULT OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 290/9. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IN 48-72 HOURS...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THE TROUGH WILL HAVE ON KAREN. BY DAY 4...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL RELOCATION...AND FOLLOWS MOST CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AND GFS GUIDANCE. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF KAREN... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH RETURNS. IF KAREN IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE YIELDS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY AT THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.1N 49.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 52.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 53.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 18.5N 55.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 56.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI |
