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| #152820 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 28.Sep.2007) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007 LORENZO MADE LANDFALL BEFORE THE LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ARRIVED....BUT RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALVARADO MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE EYEWALL WAS DEGRADING AS THE CENTER WAS CROSSING THE COAST...SO THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. GOES IMAGERY AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS MUCH WARMER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER THAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT A RATHER POTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF LORENZO TO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ. THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...POSSIBLY UP TO 15 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SINCE LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...SLOWLY TAKING LORENZO FARTHER INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PACE OF DECLINE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DECAY SHIPS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 20.6N 97.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 98.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
