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| #152852 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 28.Sep.2007) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 49.2W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 49.2W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.6N 53.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 54.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 49.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA |
